对2020年底医疗技术和分销思考【优秀范文】

下面是小编为大家整理的对2020年底医疗技术和分销思考【优秀范文】,供大家参考。

　

　North America Equity Research September 2020

　Healthcare Technology & Distribution Thoughts Across Healthcare Technology & Distribution into Year End 2020

　 Sector Lisa C. Gill AC

　(212) 622-6466 lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg JPMA GILL<GO> J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　Michael R. Minchak AC

　(212) 622-6506 michael.minchak@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　Anne E. Samuel AC

　(212) 622-4163 anne.e.samuel@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

　 See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

　 J.P.

　M

　organ

　Healthcare

　Technology

　&

　Di

　stribution

　Coverage

　Universe

　 Company

　Ticker

　 JPM Rating

　 Distributors

　AmerisourceBergen

　ABC

　OW

　Cardinal

　Health

　CAH

　N

　McKesson

　MCK

　OW

　Ow

　ens

　&

　Minor

　OMI

　UW

　 Price

　52-Week

　Range

　 %

　Change

　 Market

　Cap

　 Price/Earnings

　Ratio

　 Enterprise

　Value

　/EBITDA

　 Dividend

　 Target

　High

　Low

　YTD

　(billions)

　2020E

　2021E

　2020E

　2021E

　Yield

　Price

　$94.08

　$106.45

　$72.06

　10.7%

　$19.3

　11.7

　11.1

　8.0

　7.7

　1.8%

　$114.00

　$48.38

　$60.69

　$39.05

　-4.3%

　$14.2

　9.5

　8.3

　6.9

　6.3

　4.0%

　$58.00

　$150.37

　$172.18

　$112.60

　8.7%

　$24.6

　10.2

　9.0

　7.8

　7.1

　1.1%

　$198.00

　$15.70

　$17.66

　$3.63

　203.7%

　$1.0

　15.0

　12.0

　10.4

　9.4

　0.1%

　$12.00

　Pharma

　Distributors

　ave

　rage

　 5.0%

　 10.4

　9.5

　7.6

　7.1

　Dental

　Distributors

　(covered

　by

　M

　.

　M

　inchak)

　 Henry

　Schein

　HSIC

　N

　$64.37

　$73.99

　$41.85

　-3.5%

　$9.2

　25.6

　17.5

　16.1

　12.3

　N/A

　$66.00

　Patterson

　Cos

　PDCO

　N

　$23.92

　$30.38

　$12.93

　16.8%

　$2.3

　16.0

　15.0

　10.9

　10.8

　4.3%

　$23.00

　Dental

　Distributor

　average

　 6.6%

　 20.8

　16.3

　13.5

　11.5

　All

　Distributors

　average

　 32.6%

　 15.6

　12.6

　10.9

　9.4

　 Retail

　Pharmacy

　 CVS

　Health

　CVS

　OW

　$57.40

　$77.03

　$52.04

　-22.7%

　$75.4

　8.0

　7.8

　7.9

　7.7

　3.5%

　$102.00

　Rite

　Aid

　RAD

　N

　$11.79

　$23.88

　$6.59

　-23.8%

　$0.6

　N/A

　N/A

　7.3

　7.2

　N/A

　$17.00

　Walgreens

　Boots

　Alliance

　WBA

　N

　$34.70

　$64.50

　$33.88

　-41.1%

　$30.4

　8.1

　6.6

　7.3

　6.3

　5.4%

　$43.00

　Retail

　Pharm

　acy

　average

　 -29.2%

　 8.0

　7.2

　7.5

　7.1

　CVS

　and

　WBA

　ave

　rage

　 -31.9%

　 8.0

　7.2

　7.6

　7.0

　 Clinical

　Laboratories

　 LabCorp

　LH

　OW

　$181.47

　$206.74

　$98.02

　7.3%

　$17.9

　14.8

　12.0

　12.2

　10.2

　N/A

　$227.00

　Quest

　Diagnostics

　DGX

　N

　$110.33

　$131.81

　$73.02

　3.3%

　$15.3

　13.1

　10.4

　10.0

　8.4

　2.0%

　$159.00

　Clinical

　Laboratory

　average

　 5.3%

　 13.9

　11.2

　11.1

　9.3

　 Other

　 Cerner

　CERN

　N

　$70.95

　$80.90

　$53.08

　-3.3%

　$22.3

　25.0

　22.9

　12.9

　12.2

　1.0%

　$74.00

　Change

　Healthcare

　CHNG

　OW

　$14.32

　$17.57

　$6.18

　-12.6%

　$4.6

　12.0

　499.7

　10.2

　9.7

　N/A

　$17.00

　One

　Medical

　ONEM

　OW

　$27.57

　$44.87

　$15.00

　96.9%

　$4.3

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　$40.00

　Premier

　PINC

　N

　$31.11

　$39.70

　$27.11

　-17.9%

　$3.8

　12.2

　12.5

　7.3

　7.4

　N/A

　$33.00

　Teladoc

　TDOC

　OW

　$189.91

　$253.00

　$60.05

　126.8%

　$17.2

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　$266.00

　 Healthcare

　IT

　(covered

　by

　A.

　Samuel)

　 Allscripts

　MDRX

　N

　$8.67

　$11.82

　$4.56

　-11.7%

　$0.2

　13.1

　12.8

　4.0

　3.7

　N/A

　$9.00

　Evolent

　Health

　EVH

　N

　$12.87

　$14.50

　$3.50

　42.2%

　$1.1

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　$12.00

　Health

　Catalyst

　HCAT

　OW

　$34.50

　$41.26

　$17.48

　-0.6%

　$1.4

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　$42.00

　HealthEquity

　HQY

　OW

　$51.56

　$88.78

　$34.40

　-30.4%

　$4.0

　35.5

　30.0

　23.5

　19.9

　N/A

　$61.00

　Livongo

　LVGO

　OW

　$121.72

　$150.00

　$15.12

　385.7%

　$12.2

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　$88.00

　NextGen

　NXGN

　UW

　$13.38

　$18.49

　$5.10

　-16.7%

　$0.9

　17.3

　17.1

　8.8

　8.7

　N/A

　$12.00

　Phreesia

　PHR

　OW

　$28.15

　$34.85

　$16.01

　5.7%

　$1.1

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　$35.00

　Progyny

　PGNY

　OW

　$25.86

　$36.50

　$13.29

　-5.8%

　$2.2

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　N/A

　$35.00

　Healthcare

　IT

　average

　(including

　CERN,

　PINC)

　 43.4%

　 20.6

　19.1

　11.3

　10.4

　S&P

　500

　SPX

　3,340.97

　3,588.11

　2,191.86

　3.4%

　 25.5x

　20.1x

　 So urce: B lo omberg and J.P . M organ estimates. * Target Prices for RAD, CHNG, P IN C, M DRX, HQY and P GNY are based on an EV/EB ITDA multiple; ONEM , TDOC, EVH, HC AT, LVGO and PHR based o n EV/sales multiple; all others based o n a P/E multiple. Note: J.P . M organ ratings: OW = Overweight; N = Neutral; and UW = Underweight; NR = No t Rated. Source:

　Bloomberg.

　Pricing

　as

　of

　9/11/2020

　2

　 3

　Source:

　J.P.

　Morgan.

　Value-Based Care

　• Ongoing

　interest

　in

　value-based

　models that

　tie

　reimbursement

　to

　health

　outcomes

　• Companies

　that

　are

　part

　of

　the

　cost solution

　stand

　to

　benefit

　the

　most

　from

　this trend

　Specialty

　• Specialty

　remains

　the

　fastest

　growing

　area of

　drug

　spend

　• With

　payors

　looking

　for

　ways

　to

　address rising

　specialty

　costs,

　companies

　that

　help manage

　specialty

　spend

　likely

　to

　benefit

　Political/Regulatory

　• The

　potential

　for

　regulatory

　changes

　has led

　to

　a

　broader

　overhang

　on

　the

　sector

　• However,

　for

　substantial

　reform

　to

　pass, would

　need

　a

　bipartisan

　solution,

　alignment of

　Congress/White

　House,

　with

　>60

　votes in

　the

　Senate

　Capital Deployment

　• We

　favor

　companies

　with

　strong

　balance sheets

　and

　good

　cash

　flow

　• Recent

　transformative

　deals

　and

　the potential

　for

　disruptive

　entrants

　could

　lead to

　a

　more

　active

　pursuit

　of

　M&A

　and/or

　joint ventures

　in

　the

　near

　term

　The Consumer – The Single Biggest Disrupter in Healthcare

　• Patients

　(consumers)

　are

　getting

　more

　educated

　and

　involved

　in

　their

　healthcare

　and

　making decisions

　on

　how

　to

　allocate

　their

　healthcare

　dollars

　• The

　opportunity

　to

　engage

　the

　patient

　at

　their

　preferred

　point

　of

　service

　should

　be

　an

　important differentiator

　• Convenience,

　quality

　and

　cost

　will

　be

　key

　Key Themes Across the Sector

　 The

　S&P

　500

　is

　up

　+3.4%

　YTD

　in

　2020

　and

　the

　S&P

　500

　Health

　Care

　Sector

　Index

　is

　up

　+2.3% YTD.

　 Our

　covered

　companies

　are

　up

　+28.6%,

　on

　average,

　YTD

　in

　2020,

　although

　excluding TDOC,

　LVGO

　and

　OMI,

　our

　companies

　are

　down

　-4.4%

　YTD

　on

　average.

　

　Pharmaceutical

　Distributors

　are

　up

　+5.0%

　YTD

　in

　2020,

　on

　average,

　with

　both

　ABC

　and

　MCK outperforming

　CAH

　(ABC

　is

　up

　+10.7%

　and

　MCK

　is

　up

　+8.7%

　while

　CAH

　is

　down

　-4.3%). 

　Drug

　Retailers

　are

　down

　-29.2%

　on

　average

　YTD

　in

　2020,

　and

　the

　worst

　performing

　subsector. CVS

　is

　down

　-22.7%

　YTD

　in

　2020,

　outperforming

　WBA

　(down

　-41.1%

　YTD,

　and

　the

　worst performing

　stock

　in

　our

　coverage

　universe),

　while

　RAD

　is

　down

　-23.8%

　YTD. 

　Clinical

　Labs

　are

　up

　+5.3%

　YTD

　in

　2020,

　with

　LH

　up

　+7.3%

　YTD

　and

　DGX

　up

　+3.3%

　YTD.  

　Dental

　Distributors

　are

　up

　+6.6%

　on

　average

　YTD

　in

　2020,

　with

　HSIC

　down

　-3.5%

　YTD,

　while PDCO

　is

　up

　16.8%

　after

　underperforming

　in

　prior

　years. 

　Healthcare

　IT

　is

　up

　+40.6%

　YTD

　on

　average

　in

　2020,

　driven

　by

　the

　sharp

　increase

　in

　LVGO (which

　is

　up

　386%

　YTD

　and

　is

　the

　best

　performing

　stock

　in

　our

　coverage

　universe).

　 Excluding LVGO,

　Healthcare

　IT

　is

　down

　-2.6%

　YTD

　with

　EVH

　up

　+42.2%,

　while

　HQY

　is

　down

　-30.4%

　and NXGN

　is

　down

　-16.7%. 

　Among

　stocks

　not

　included

　within

　the

　five

　subsectors

　discussed

　above,

　TDOC

　(a

　Telehealth provider)

　is

　up

　+126.8%

　YTD

　in

　2020

　(the

　third

　best

　performing

　stock

　in

　our

　coverage

　universe) as

　COVID-19

　has

　driven

　increased

　awareness

　and

　utilization,

　while

　ONEM

　(a

　tech-enabled primary

　care

　provider )

　is

　up

　96.9%

　since

　its

　IPO

　on

　1/30/2020,

　while

　OMI

　(a

　Medical

　Supply Distributor )

　in

　up

　203.7%

　YTD

　in

　2020

　(the

　second

　best

　performing

　stock)

　driven

　by

　demand

　for PPE).

　 Finally,

　PINC

　(a

　GPO

　and

　Technology

　Services

　provider)

　is

　down

　-17.9%

　YTD. 

　 HCAT, -0.6% CERN, -3.3% HSIC, -3.5% CAH, -4.3% PGNY, -5.8% MDRX, -11.7% NXGN, -16.7% PINC, -17.9% CVS, -22.7% RAD, -23.8% HQY, -30.4% WBA, -41.1%

　EVH, 42.2% PDCO, 16.8% ABC, 10.7% MCK, 8.7% LH, 7.3% PHR, 5.7% DGX, 3.3%

　OMI, 203.7% TDOC, 126.8% LVGO, 385.7% Stock Performance YTD in 2020 by Company

　30%

　20%

　10%

　0%

　-10%

　-20%

　-30%

　-40%

　-50%

　Drug

　Distributor

　Drug

　Retail

　Labs

　Dental

　Dist

　Healthcare

　IT

　ex

　LVGO

　S&P

　500

　Sector Return

　Healthcare IT 40.6% Dental Dist 6.6% Labs 5.3% Drug Distributor 5.0% S&P 500 3.4% Healthcare IT ex LVGO -2.6%

　Drug Retail -29.2%

　 Stock Performance YTD in 2020 by Sector

　 Implied

　Upside

　 CVS Health Ticker:

　CVS Rating:

　Overweight

　Dec-21

　Price

　Target:

　$102

　 Rationale: Play on key theme, with path to accelerating growth and attractive valuation • We believe CVS is one of the best positioned companies across our coverage universe over the longer term • Integrated model and broad suite of services position CVS well in an evolving marketplace characterized by the ongoing “retailization” of healthcare and shift to new reimbursement models (value-based care) • CVS brings a unique integrated model to marketplace.

　Combined entity to drive lower overall health costs through data/analytics, more effective patient engagement and shifting care to lower cost sites • CVS previously provided a favorable outlook for next several years, with a return to double-digit EPS growth in 2022 driven by integration synergies, enterprise modernization and transformation initiatives.

　78%

　Top Pick

　 We

　believe

　recent

　underperformance

　has

　been

　driven

　by

　two

　key

　factors

　 Investor

　feedback:

　Why

　own

　it

　today

　when

　we

　can

　have

　clarity

　on

　both

　issues

　in November

　(CVS

　is

　currently

　scheduled

　to

　report

　3Q20

　results

　on

　November

　6)?

　

　Uncertainty

　around

　the

　2021

　Outlook

　

　What

　is

　the

　appropriate

　jumping

　off

　point

　for

　2021

　adjusted

　EPS

　given

　some

　of

　the non-rec...