半导体产业Q2应该是谷底
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G l o b al R e sear c h
21
May
2020
UB S
Gl o ba l
I/ O
A utos / I nd us tr i al
S e mi c ond uc tor s
Q 2
s h o u ld
m ar k
t he
tr ou g h ,
wh at
p ace
of
r ecove ry?
F o cu s
sh i f t s
t o
r eco v e r y
-
af t er
- 15%
i n
" 20E
w e
s ee
26%
g r o w t h
i n
" 21E
As
i n v es to r
fo c u s
s h i ft s
fro m
s ho rt - term /b al a n ce
s h eet
res ili en ce
to w ard s
th e
p ace
o f rec o v ery
w e
mi gh t
ex p ec t
i n 2021 E , i n th i s
no te
w e
rev i s i t
our l ead i ng i nd i ca to r an al y s i s an d rev i s e
our au to
s emi s
rev en u e
mod el . W e
rec ogn i s e
ri s ks
to
th e
p ace
o f
rec o v ery an d hurd l es
as
Eu rop e / US
l o c kdo w n s
eas e
bu t
remai n po s i ti ve
on th e
s ec to r. W e
s ee
a numb er
o f
c atal y s ts
to
s uppo rt
s to cks
i n c l ud i ng: 1 )
Semi s
y -o- y
gro w th
i s
li ke l y
al read y a t
t rough i n Q 2/ Q 3 gi ve n t he
r a pi d s l ow -do w n w i t h a
s ha rp r e t urn t o gr ow t h i n v i e w f or
20 21E ;
2)
T r e nds
i n
a ut o
prod uc t i on
ca n" t
ge t
m uc h
w or s e
t ha n
Q 2
a nd
s ho ul d i mpr ov e
i nt o Q 3; 3)
P ot e nt i a l
gov e rnm e nt
s t i m ul us
pl a n s
i n a ut os
( a s
r ece nt l y
di s cus s e d i n EU)
th at
al s o mi gh t
h ave
s o me
b i as
to w ard s
EV
( po s i ti ve
fo r s emi s
c on ten t). R e v i si n g
o u r
au t o s
se m i s
r e v e nu e
m o d e l
W e
rev i s i t
our au to s
s em i s
rev en u e
mod e l
refl ec ti ng our l ates t
produ c ti on e s ti mates
- w e
no w
fo rec as t
- 15%
a ut o
s e m i s
r eve nue s
i n
20 20E
( w a s
-3 %)
b efo re
rec o v eri ng +26 %
i n 2021 E
( w as
+13 %) . W e
c on ti nu e
to
s ee
a
v er y
s t rong c ont e nt
oppor t uni t y
i n au to
s emi s
( +8 %
th rough
cyc l e)
d ri v en
b y
i n creas i ng
s h are
o f
EV
d ep l o y men ts
an d ri s i ng p e n etrati on o f
ADAS
s a fety
s y s tems
( bo th
und imi n i s h ed
b y
COV I D -19 ) . Th ere
i s s om e
pot e nt i a l
t ha t
a ut o s e m i s
s a l e s
c oul d be
he l pe d i n 2020 E
b y
mi x
s h i fti ng to w ard s p remi um c ars
( s o methi ng b e i ng s een
i n Ch i n a)
an d i n v en to r y
bu il d as
Ti er
1 s
/ OEM s l ook to
en s u re
mo re
res ili e n ce
bu t
our fo c u s
i s
mo re
on th e
reac c el erati on i n 2021 E.
Sta t e
o f
p l ay
-
se ct o r
l e ad i n g
i nd i ca t o r s
t r e nd i n g
p o sit i v e l y
Ou r l ea di ng i nd i ca t or w ork poi nt s
t o: 1)
y -o- y
s e m i s
r ev
gr ow t h t roug hi ng i n Q 2" 20 a t
- 16%
y -o- y
th e n rec o v eri ng i n H2 . W e
al s o no te
th at
on a
2- y ear
CAG R
b as i s
( g i v en
" 19 w as
a
c h al l en g i ng year)
th i s
" 19-20 do w n cyc le
is
se e in g a
simila r p ace
o f
slo w -down fo r th e
i ndu s try
as
th at
s een
i n " 08-09. 2 )
I n v en t o ry
w i th i n s emi s
remai n s
el ev ated
( 6 d ay s ab o ve
no rmal ) ;
au to s
OEM s / T i er
1 s
are
c u rren tl y
8
d ay s
ab o ve
no rmal
( th ough
i n ab s o l u te
i n- li n e
w i th
no rmal
l ev el s )
w h il e
i ndu s tri al
OEM s
are
i n- lin e
wit h norm a l
t r e nds . 3 )
W e
b el i eve
s emi s
are
o v er - s hi p pi ng de m a nd i n Q 2 b ut
s ho ul d norm a li s e
i n Q 3. V a l ua t i o n
/
p r e f e rr e d
st o ck s
The
s ec to r i s
tr ad i ng on 19 x
" 21 E
P / E,
no t
c h eap
c omp ared
to
1 y
forw ard
av erag e
o f 18 x
bu t
w e
s ee
po ten ti a l
fo r
earn i ng s
mo men tu m
to
acc el erate
as
e nd
d eman d s tabili s es / rec o ve rs .
O ur
mo s t
p referred
n a mes
are
I n fi n eo n,
R en e s as ,
R ohm
a nd STM i c ro.
L eas t
p referred
are
M el ex i s
an d
TX N
( th ough
w e
rec en tl y
upg rad e d
to Neu tral ) . D av i d
M ul hol l a nd,
CF A
A na l ys t da vi d.mulholl a nd @ ubs .com
+ 44-20-7568
4069
Fr an co i s - X avi er
B o u vi g n i es
A na l ys t f r a ncoi s .bouvigni e s@ ubs .com
+ 44-20-7568
7105
T i mo th y
A rc u ri
A na l ys t t im ot hy.a r cu ri @ u bs .com
+1 -415-352
5676
N i co l as
G aud o i s
A na l ys t ni col a s .ga udoi s@ ubs .com
+ 852-2971
5681
Ke nji
Ya s ui A na l ys t k e nji .ya s ui @ ubs .com
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Sh i n g o
H i r at a,
CFA A na l ys t s hingo.hir a t a @ ub s .com
+ 81-3-5208
6224
B ill
L u A na l ys t bill.l u@ ubs .com
+1 -415-352
4696
Pat r ick
Humm e l ,
CFA A na l ys t pa t ri ck .humm e l @ ubs .com
+ 41-44-239
79
23
D avi d
Les n e
A na l ys t da vi d.l e s ne @ ubs .com
+ 33-1-4888
3034
www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch
T hi s
r e por t
ha s
be e n pr e pa r e d by
U BS
A G
L ondon Bra nc h.
ANALYS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E GI N O N
P AGE
17 .
UB S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i n es s
w i t h c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
re s earc h r ep o rts . As
a
res u l t,
i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v ity
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. Sem i con ductor s
G l o bal
Equit ies
A ut os
/
I ndust r ial
S emi c o ndu c t or s U BS
R es ear c h
Q 2 M A RK S
T R OUGH
BU T
HO W S T RO NG
W ILL
2021 BE ?
re turn Revi s i ng
our aut o
s e m i s
r evenue m odel O ur
a ut os
c ol l ea gue s
r e c e nt l y
r e duc e d
our
a ut os
pr oduc t i on
f or e c a s t s
t o
- 19% y -o- y
i n
2020
be f or e
a
+15%
r e c ov e r y
i n
2021E
( U B S
G lobal
A ut o s
S a l e s
M ont hl y ) a nd
henc e
w e
r e v i s e
our
bot t om-up
a ut os
s e m i s
r e v e nu e
m odel .
W i t h
t he
pa c e
of c orr e c t i on
be i ng
s ee n
t hrough
s upp li e s
d ue
t o
t he
CO V I D -19
out br ea k
w e
ha d a l r ea dy
l a r ge l y
r e f l e c t e d
t he
c ha nge s
i n
our
c om pany
f or e c a s t s
t hrough
ea rning s s ea s on
( or
i n
s om e
c a s e s
be f or e ) .
T he
k e y
que s t i on
f or
us
i n
r e v i s i ng
t he
m odel how e v e r
ha s
b ee n
t o
unde r s t a nd
t he
pot e nt i a l
pa c e
of
r e c ov e r y
i n
c ont e nt
gr ow t h t ha t
w e
m i ght
s ee
a s
w e
progr e ss
i nt o
20 21E .
W e
s ee
f our
m a i n
dr i v e r s
of
our f or e c a s t s
i nt o
2021E
t ha t
gi v e
us
c onf i de n c e
gr ow t h
w ill
r ea cc e l e r a t e
s t rongl y :
(1) A ut os
pr oduc t i on
r e c ov e r y :
C l ea r l y
t he
abs ol ut e
a ut os
uni t s
a r e
one
of
t he mo s t
i mportan t
dri v e rs .
W e
c u rre n tl y
a ss u me
a
re c o v e ry
o f
+ 15 %
y -o- y
i n 2021E
t o
82m
uni t s ;
t hi s
i s
s t ill
w e ll
b e l o w
t he
l a s t
pe a k
of
95m
uni t s
a nd e v e n
2019" s
89m
uni t s .
(2) Cha nge
i n
i n ven t o r y
l evel s :
W e
s a w
t hrough
2019
a
m a j or
he a dw i nd
t o a ut o
s e m i s
s a l e s
a s
i nv e nt or y
w a s
w ork e d
dow n
t hrough
t he
c ha nnel .
W e c urr e nt l y
a ss um e
s om e
mo de r a t e
i nv e nt or y
r e duc t i on
s t ill
i n
2020
( t hough l e ss
t ha n
i n
20 19)
a nd
w e
be li e v e
i t
i s
qui t e
pos s i b l e
2021E
c ould
t he n
bene f i t f rom
s om e
r e bui l d
of
i nv e nt or y
t hrough
t he
s uppl y
c ha i n.
(3) U nde r l y i ng
c ont e nt growt h:
Whi l e
t he
m a rk e t
ha s
be e n
highl y
di s r upt e d t hrough
2019/2020
t he
unde r l y i ng
dyna m i c s
of
ne w
m odel
l a unc he s
t o
dr i v e r i s i ng
E V
pene t r a t i on
a nd
gr ea t e r
a dopt i on
of
A D A S
f ea t ur e s
w i t h
ne w
m odel l a unc he s
a r e
l a r ge l y
unc ha ng e d.
T hi s
m ea n s
t ha t
w hi l s t
t he
he a dl i ne
c o nt e nt gr ow t h
t ha t
w e
s how i n
our
m odel
i n
2019/2020
ha s
be e n
be l ow
t r e nd
( w e be li e v e
t r e nd
i s
c 8% ) ,
t hi s
ha s
l a r ge l y
be e n
a
c ons e que n c e
of
t he
i nv e nt or y c ha nge s
r a t he r
t ha n
a ny t hing
s t r uc t ur a l
i n
t he
i ndu s t r y .
I f
a ny t hing
s om e
of t he
c omm e nt a r y
w e
s ee
on
c urr e nt
a ut o
s a l e s
s ugge s t
t ha t
t he
s a l e s
r e c ov e r y i s
bi a s e d
t ow a r ds
high- e nd
m odel s
w hi c h
w ould
be
he l pf ul
f or
c ont e nt .
F i g u r e
1 :
U B S
au t o
se m i s
m o d e l
-
co n t e n t
g r o w t h
assump t i o ns
1 2%
1 0%
8 %
6 %
4 %
2 %
0 %
2016
2017
2018
2019 E
2020 E
2021 E
2022 E
2023 E
2024 E
2025 E
S our ce :
UB S
e s tim a te s
10.5 %
10.8 %
11.1 %
9.7 %
8.0 %
7.7 %
7.9 %
6.8 %
6.1 %
3.2 %
W e
i nc lude
be l ow
our
a ut o
s e m i s
r e v e nue
m odel
a l ong
w i t h
t he
k e y
a ss um pt i on s we
ar e
m aki ng
r egar d i ng
r is i ng
EV
m i x .
F i g u r e
2 :
U B S
A u t o
se m i s
r e v e nu e
m o d e l
( US $ m )
GARTNER
HISTORICS
UBS
ESTIMATES
Sem i
s al e s ( U S$ b n )
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019E
2020E
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
%
C A G R
( " 19- " 24)
ADAS
1.7
3.0
4.1
5.1
5.9
5.6
8.3
9.6
11.4
13.8
18.0
19 %
A fte rma rk e t
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.5
1.9
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
1%
Body
4.6
5.5
6.6
7.4
6.9
5.6
6.6
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
4%
C h a ssi s
4.6
4.5
5.1
5.4
5.1
4.1
4.9
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.9
3%
I nfot a inm e nt
7.2
7.7
8.4
9.0
8.4
6.8
8.2
9.0
9.6
10.0
10.4
4%
Po w er t r ai n
5.4
6.8
7.4
8.0
8.2
7.6
9.8
11.3
12.8
14.7
17.0
12 %
Saf et y
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.7
4.1
3.5
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
2%
Total
30. 1
34. 1
38. 5
42. 2
41. 0
35. 1
44. 3
49. 1
54. 2
...