美国大型银行业：2020年Q1,10-Q回顾与当前问题
下面是小编为大家整理的美国大型银行业：2020年Q1,10-Q回顾与当前问题,供大家参考。
al n
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te
n
I
-
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i
tr s
Re
C OR E
U.S.
La rg e - Ca p
Ba nks
1Q20
10 - Q
R eview
&
Cu rr ent
Ev ents
ACL :
Th e
m ai n
takea w ay
f r o m
th e
1 Q 20
10 - Q
f ili ng s
w as
th at
afte r
a
m e an i ngfu l i n c r ease
i n
th e
all ow an c e
f or
c r e di t
l o ss e s
( AC L)
i n
1 Q 20
f r om
both
C E C L
an d
l oan
l os s r e s e r v e
bu il d,
an oth e r
st e p - u p
i s
likel y
i n
2 Q 20 ,
as
th e
e c onom i c
ou tl ook
h as
de g r ad e d . I n
agg r e g ate ,
ou r
c ove r ag e " s
A C L
i n c r ease d
f r om
$78 bn
i n
4 Q 19
to
$130 bn
at
1 Q 20 , w i th
$24 bn
of
th e
i n c r ea s e
f r o m
C E C L
an d
$28 bn
f r om
r e s e r v e
bu il d .
Th e
$130 bn
AC L c om pa r e s
to
DF AST
2018
s e v e r el y
a dv e r s e
l os s e s
of
$358 bn
( $228 bn
di ff e r e n c e ) .
St ill ,
I NDU S T RY
UPD A T E
U . S .
La r g e - Ca p
Ba nk s PO SI TI V E Unc hang e d
U . S .
La r g e - Ca p
Ba nk s J a s o n
M .
G o ld b e r g ,
C FA
+ 1
212
526
8580
E qu ity
R e s ear c h
3
June
2020
ou r
c ove r ag e
h as
$188 bn
of
C E T1
above
c u rr e n t
r e gu lat or y
m i n i mum s
an d
s h ou l d g e n e r ate
$167 bn
of
PPNR
ove r
th e
n ext
3
qu ar t e r s ,
w h ile
pa y i ng
ou t
on l y
$37 bn
i n c om m o n
di v i de n ds
–
th i s
n e ts
to
a
g r eate r
$318 bn .
C om pa r i ng
c u rr e n t
AC Ls
to
th e DF AST
s e v e r el y
ad v e r s e
l os s e s
sh ows
A LL Y ,
C ,
C M A,
FI T B ,
H B AN
an d
JPM
h ave
h i gh e r c ove r age
r ati o s
than
th e
T r u st
B an ks,
W FC ,
M TB ,
Z I O N,
K E Y
a n d
RF.
R eserv e/L o a n s :
Th e
m e dian
b an ks
r e s e r v e / l oan
r ati o
w a s
1 . 58 %
at
1 Q 20 .
C r e di t
c ar d at
8 . 83 %
h ad
th e
h i gh e st
r ati o
f oll owed
b y
oth e r
c on s um e r
a t
1 . 96 % .
C &D
( 1 . 20 % ) ,
C & I ( 1 . 17 % ) ,
C RE
( 1 . 11 % )
h ad
s i m ilar
c ov e r age
r ati os ,
w h ile
r e s i d e n tial
R/ E
h ad
th e
l o w e st ( 0 . 86 % ) .
E xc l u di ng
c ar d,
th e
m e dian
b an k‟s
r e s e r v e / l oan
r ati o
w as
a
l o w e r
1 . 34 % .
C O F, C ,
ALL Y ,
JPM
an d
F I TB
h ad
r e s e r v e / l oan
r ati o
i n
e xc e ss
of
2 % .
E xc l u di ng
c ar d,
C O F
s till r an ks
th e
h i gh e s t,
f oll owed
b y
ALL Y ,
H B AN,
G S
an d
FI T B .
Af te r
th e
tr u st
b an ks,
FRC , W FC ,
K E Y
an d
Z I O N
h ave
l ow e r
r e s e r v e / l oan
r ati os .
A r eas
w h e r e
b an ks
h ave
above - ave r ag e
l oan
e xposu r e
an d
b el ow - ave r age
r e s e r v e / l oan
r ati o s
are
w orth
pa y i ng
c l os e r atte n ti on
to.
Th e s e
i n c l u de
PN C
an d
K E Y
i n
C & I ,
FRC
an d
W FC
i n
C RE ,
an d
PNC ,
RF
an d CFG
i n
C &D
le n di ng .
Sti ll ,
un de r w r iti ng
c r i t e r ia
i s
an
i m por t an t
c on s i de r ati on .
E xpo sur es :
I n
1 Q 20 ,
c r iti c i ze d
l oan s
at
th e
m e dian
b an k
i n c r ease d
22 % .
U SB
( +14 0 % ) , B AC
( 63 % ) ,
JPM
( +60 % ) ,
FI TB
( +59 % ) ,
TFC
( +35 % ) ,
an d
C O F
( +31 % )
pos te d
th e
lar g e st
i n c r ease s ,
w h ile
FRC ,
M TB ,
G S,
an d
Z I O N
e xpe r ie n c e d
de c li n e s .
C r iti c i z e d
l oan s
as
a pe r c e n t
of
tota l
l oan s
w e r e
ov e r
3 %
at
G S,
FI T B ,
C M A,
ALL Y ,
PNC ,
S I V B ,
an d
H B AN. Ai r li n e s / c r u i s e
li n e s ,
au to,
e n e r g y ,
g amin g
&
l odging ,
h eal th c are ,
h ote l s / c asi n os , r e s ta u r an ts ,
an d
r etail
s ee m e d
to
b e
h i gh li gh te d
m os t
f r e qu e n tl y
as
area s
of
n ear - te r m c on c e r n .
Z I O N
( 5 . 2 % ) ,
C M A
( 4 . 0 % )
an d
RF
( 3 . 3 % )
are
m os t
ex pos e d
to
e n e r g y
le n di n g.
Chin a :
W e
do
not
b elie v e
C h i n a
c r os s- b orde r
c lai m s
e xc ee d
1 . 5 %
of
as s e ts
at
an y
U . S. G - SI B .
C
( $30 bn ) ,
G S
( $15 bn ) ,
M S
( $11 bn )
an d
BK
( $4 bn )
r e por t
c r os s- b o r de r
c lai m s , w h ile
C
( $19 bn ) ,
JPM
( $19 bn ) ,
B AC
( $16 bn ) ,
BK
( $4 bn ) ,
W FC
( $5 bn )
an d
M S
( $4 bn ) de tail
dol lar
e xposu r e .
PPP :
PPP
l oan s
e xc ee d
7 %
of
tota l
l oan s
a t
Z I O N,
K E Y
H B AN,
C M A
an d
M TB .
I n
2 Q 20 , PPP
l oan s
s h ou l d
i n c r ease
n e t
i n te r e st
i n c om e ,
l oan s
an d
de po s i ts ,
w h ile
i n itiall y pr e ss u r i ng
n e t
i n te r e st
m ar g i n s
an d
TC E
r ati os .
W e
e xpe c t
s e v e r al
to
don ate
n e t
p r of i ts .
R a tes :
ALL Y
i s
th e
on l y
b an k
th at
h as
m or e
li abi litie s
r e p r i c i ng
w i th i n
1
y ear
than
as s e ts ( as
pe r c e n t
of
as s e ts ) ,
w h ile
BK ,
FRC
an d
JPM
are
al s o
r elati v el y
l ow.
C M A,
M TB ,
SI V B , FI TB ,
NTRS,
K E Y ,
an d
CFG
s ta n d
ou t
on
th e
oth e r
e n d.
Un r eali ze d
g ai n s
a s
a
p e r c e n t
of TC E
w e r e
h i gh e st
at
F I TB ,
U S B ,
SI V B ,
PNC
an d
TFC
at
1 Q 20 .
j aso n. g o l d b e r g @ b ar c l ay s . c o m
BC I ,
US
I nna
Bl y akhe r
+ 1
212
526
3904
inna. b l y akhe r @ b a r c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
M att he w
Ke ssel haut
+ 1
212
526
0181
m att he w.kessel haut @ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
E ug e ne
Ko y s m an
+ 1
212
526
0971
E ug e ne . Ko y s m an@ba r c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
Br i an
M o r t o n,
C F A
+ 1
212
526
2163
b r i an. m o r t on@ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
B a r c la y s
C a p i t al
I n c .
a n d / o r
o n e
o f
i ts
a ff ilia t e s
d o e s
a n d
s ee ks
t o
d o
bu s i n e ss
w i t h c o m p a n ie s
c o v e r e d
i n
i ts
r e s ea r c h
r e p o r ts .
A s
a
r e s u l t ,
i n v e st o r s
s h o u l d
b e
a w a r e
t h a t
t h e f i r m
m a y
h a v e
a
c o nf li c t
o f
i n t e r e st
t h a t
c o u l d
a ff e c t
t h e
o b j e c t i v i t y
o f
t h i s
r e p o r t .
I n v e st o r s s h o u l d
c o n s i d e r
t h i s
r e p o r t
a s
o n l y
a
s i ng le
f a c t o r
i n
m a k i ng
t h ei r
i n v e st m e n t
d e c i s i o n .
P L E A S E
S EE
A N A L Y S T
C E R T I F I C A T I O N ( S )
A ND
I M PO R T A N T
D I S C L O S U R E S
BE G I NN I N G
O N
P A G E
65 .
C ON TEN TS
O u tl ook
................................................................................................ 3
E PS
O u tl ook
....................................................................................... 3
G ai n s
&
C h ar g e s
.................................................................................. 3
Ac qu i s iti on s
&
Di v e s ti tu r e s
...................................................................... 4
Loan
Portfo li o
&
As s e t
Q u ality
....................................................................... 5
Loan
M ix
........................................................................................... 5
Loan
Los s
R e s e r v e
b y
Type
...................................................................... 9
Unfun de d
C om m i tm e n ts
........................................................................ 12
C r iti c i ze d
L oan s
.................................................................................. 12
Le v el
3
As s e ts
.................................................................................... 13
Cap ital
&
Li qu i di ty
................................................................................... 14
E xc e ss
Cap ital
an d
Re s e r v e
C ov e r age
.......................................................... 14
C u rr e n t
Cap ital
Rat i os
........................................................................... 16
Share
Re pu r c h ase
................................................................................ 18
I n te r e st
Rat e s
an d
Ne t
I n te r e st
M ar g i n
............................................................ 19
I n te r e st
Rat e
S e n s iti v ity
......................................................................... 19
Ne t
I n t e r e st
M ar g i n
.............................................................................. 24
Se c u r itie s
Portfo li o
............................................................................... 27
De pos i ts
.......................................................................................... 30
O th e r
Topi c s
of
Not e
................................................................................ 31
For ei gn
E xposu r e
................................................................................ 31
C h i n a
.............................................................................................. 33
Le g al
.............................................................................................. 33
Au ditor s
........................................................................................... 35
B u s i n e ss
M ix
...................................................................................... 35
C om pa n y
Su mm arie s
................................................................................ 47
O utlook
EPS
O u tlo o k
Th e
ma i n
t a k ea wa y
f ro m
the
1Q20
10 - Q
f ili ng s
wa s
that ,
a f te r
a
mea n i ng f u l
i n c rea se
i n the
a ll o wa n c e
f o r
c red i t
l o sses
( ACL)
i n
1Q20
f ro m
b o th
CE CL
a nd
l o a n
l o ss
re serve bu il d ,
a n o ther
step - u p
i s
li kel y
i n
2Q20
a s
the
ec o n o m i c
o u tl oo k
h a s
d e g rad e d . G u i da n c e
tw e aks
of
n ote
w e r e :
J P M
i m pr ovi ng
i ts
2 Q 20
n e t
i n t e r e st
i n c om e ,
2020
n e t i n te r e st
i n c om e ,
an d
2020
e xpe n s e
e xp e c tati on s ;
P NC
u p pi ng
i ts
2 Q 20
l oan
g r owt h e xpe c tati on ...